Trump Presidency Effectively Ends in Helsinki–Unless it Doesn’t

Trump returns to Washington from Helsenki summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But establishment Washington and Media Party remain in a noisy uproar because Trump is said to have sided with Putin’s testimony over that of his own intelligence “community.” So today Trump reversed himself on two key points,

(a) Trump claims he mispoke; so, to clarifly, Trump “accepts the intelligencde conclusion that Russia meddled in 2016,” and U.S. intelligence agencies enjoy his full faith and confidence


(b) Trump insists sanctions on Russia will remain in place.


In a blog burst titled Trump Reverses: “I Accept Intelligence Conclusion That Russia Meddled In 2016,”, writes the psuedononymous Tyler Durden:

In an attempt to ‘clarify’ his remarks during yesterday’s summit with Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump made a brief closed-door address to a handful of Republican members of Congress amid mounting criticism from allies and foes alike about his failure to publicly condemn Russian election meddling.

How does this play out, you ask? I have no clue. But here are some scenarios:

(a) Soft coup d’etat develops apace. Trump presidency effectively over. In one sense the Trump presidency effectively ended Febrary 13, 2017, when Flynn resigned over the issue of contacts with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak, the later sackings of especially Steve but also Reince Priebus, the continuous leaks and sabotage operations from within. The coup develops with Trump forced to issue further Russian sanctions, to order the further occupation of sectors of Syria without objectives and with no clear end against his own judgment, and to command airstrikes on Syria in response to a false flag White Helmet hoax.

But Trump recovered somewhat by means of his travel ban court victories, his successful selection and installation of a supreme court judge and maybe two, his regular and hugely attended rallies, and his frequent and frequently absurd to point of distraction tweet-stream attacks, boasts, and apologias. In this scenario the slow-bleed continues with renewed leaks, renewed sabotage, and Neoconservative foreign adventures abroad that flatly contradict Trump’s own nationalist-isolationist instincts.

The high-concept movie pitch for this scenario would be HOSTAGE WHITE HOUSE; CAN TRUMP BREAK FREE? He broke free before. Or seemed to. Can he do it again?

(b) Soft coup d’etat develops to a new level of activity, to isolate and delegimate a U.S. President. This could take any number of forms, e.g. a wave of high-level resignations, candidates or office holders withholding their support or switching parties, renewed bureaucratic and agency intransigence as DOJ, Intelligence Community, FBI, and so forth, balk at administration policy or directive and go their own way with media, rival party, corporate and cultural elite approval. This would continue to develop–to spiral–until Trump was forced to resign in favour of his Vice President.

The high-concept movie pitch for this scenario would be FLIGHT INTO THE IGNOMINY OF DISGRACE: A PRESIDENT IN EXILE.

(c) Hard coup d’etat. “Shadow government,” military, legislators, and especially intelligence community figures develop legal-operational pretext to occupy the White House, somehow, and here I know not how, enjoin actors sufficiently loyal and in sufficient numbers to seize key operational centres in Washington and up and down the East Coast including major troop, air wing, and fleet commands. Chaos ensues until a “national-unity” figure of figures with some claim to legitimacy are installed to stand before cameras to impress us with their invincible calm and fierce competence. All redolent of the Soviet coup of 1991.

Expect sweeping and emergency-gun and speech-control legislation to follow immediately, hybrid warfare on the streets of coastal cities with globally exposed logistical hubs, rolling power and internet black-outs coordinated with high-spectacle in the form of riots, fires, strikes, and mass demonstrations, and in the hinterlands the occupation of major urban centres along logistical corridors by uniformed troops unsure of their footing or, more likely, the anonymous paramilitaries of hybrid warfare.

The high-concept movie pitch for this scenario would be SAVIORS OF A NATION OR TWILIGHT OF THE USSA.

(d) This drama subsides as it always has; Trump recovers to whatever degree. Trump reversed himself on the separation of immigrant families at the border, reversed himself on whether to accept the invitation of interviewers renounce the endorsement of figures like David Duke, and so forth.

The high-concept movie pitch for this scenario would be THE APPRENTICE MOVIE; TWICE THE REALITY, THREE TIMES THE DRAMA.

(b) and (c) are the least likely outcomes IMHO if only because they break precedent, and would issue into chaos, to a degree that could alienate whatever good will the coup plotters would accrue to themselves, which I imagine would be very little. I would guess combinations of (a) and (d) but what do I know?

yours &c.
g.v. wilkes iv

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